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Typically, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year award adheres to a straightforward pattern. It frequently functions as a form of mea culpa. We regret we got wrong your team in our preseason forecasts.

On paper, it's a clear-cut line: the coach who oversaw the largest improvement wins the award. In reality, it sparks an yearly debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely honoring superior leadership or merely the greatest surprise.

But the current race is distinctly unique. The pool of candidates is remarkably deep. It has been the campaign of turnarounds. The league has been chaotic, with recent conference winners declining and recent strugglers ascending in unison. During an ordinary season, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the stone-cold favorite. But in such a chaotic and entertaining season, he's competing with multiple other outstanding candidates.

This is how the projected ballot ought to shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by quarterbacks. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you transform a franchise QB, you're halfway to winning the award.

Ben Johnson not only fixed his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. Within an ideal system, the QB has been given the opportunity to demonstrate his otherworldly talent. Since Week 9, the Chicago offense rank number four in offensive EPA per play. That's not a hot streak – it's prolonged excellence. Under his guidance, the quarterback has become increasingly confident, less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the system instead of freelancing. It is an attack built solely in the coach's vision: a bully-ball run game, a heavy helping of play-action and a imaginative passing attack that springs wide-open targets everywhere. The QB has thrived. And when openings weren't available, he's been able to spin magic out of broken plays.

The coach came to the Bears with a specific offensive blueprint. Almost each gamble – overhauling the offensive line, highlighting the pass-catchers, transforming Williams into a timing-based passer – has worked. This is uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a leader who entered the organization with the level of expectations he did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the hottest name on the coaching market. However when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are no guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a offensive dork but the kind of leader that can breathe new life into an franchise.

During a ordinary season, he would be the clear-cut favorite. Yet the current is not a normal campaign!

The area where his candidacy comes slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears currently rank 25th in defensive success rate. They are living on takeaways, and takeaways are famously fickle. Defensive minds can stress creating turnovers, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offense is real. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defensive heavy lifting. If not for a couple breaks of the ball, the Bears would be several victories behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is established for sustained success. But he comes up just short here.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

Coen is in a comparable position to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie leader who has masterminded a rapid turnaround. During the crucial final weeks of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best overall ball of his professional life. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defensive unit that now ranks fifth in the league in EPA per play.

What's more notably, Coen has excelled at the leadership aspects, which was not a guarantee following his initial press conference introduction and some of his preseason moves.

Coen took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw staff. In contrast to Johnson, who packed their staff with the perfect coaching mix of new ideas and veteran savvy, Coen trusted newbies. From the leader on down to coordinators to position coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That kind of setup is exciting on paper, but frequently fails in practice – with other teams are a warning – because everyone is figuring out a new job on the fly. Yet Coen has managed to bring everyone and all elements together.

Following an early hot beginning, there was a possibility that the campaign would veer off the track. A midseason collapse had the team wobbling once more. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. Coen did not. Instead, he simplified the approach. The offense stopped pursuing home-run answers and started hunting sustainable ones. Coen recentered the offense around his playmakers and the ground attack, and asked Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are evident. The Jaguars have won multiple games in a row and will be the conference's number three playoff seed. He gets the slightest deduction in the standings because he took over a skilled roster, but he has proven he can get the most out of that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Each Coach of the Year argument has a hinge moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB decision.

Moving on from a incumbent, bringing in a different quarterback and pairing him with an innovative play-caller might have derailed the season in October. Instead, it defined it. By the mid point of the season, the new QB was an MVP contender. He has cooled off after that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, putting him only a single spot ahead of other QBs.

Still